bets against Argentina
for any bets against Argentina it is probably smarter to wait as I think they will be a very public team as WC draws nearer. But if you ask me the two most important things to have for any success in WC it would be a solid MF and coaching, both of which Argentina severely lack. It's not that their MF is poor but Maradona simply decided to keep the guys in best form with most experience off the team. As I mentioned in another thread he is looking to play a 4-4-1-1 with Messi the volante behind the striker but then he is keeping FIVE strikers on the squad, so makes no sense at all. This MF (Gutierrez, Mascherano,. Veron, Di Maria, Bolatti, Maxi, Pastore) is nowhere near the country's best MF. Of course their striking group might be the world's best (Tevez, Messi, Higuain, Milito, Palermo, Aguero) but you can only play ONE of these guys in front of Messi! That means Maradona will play his worst players on the field since you need, of course, 4 MF and 4 DF. Put it this way...the European Champions (Inter Milan) started both Cambiasso and Zanetti today in midfield but Maradona decides to keep BOTH of them off the team? Clearly, Maradona is insane or overtaxed by all the coke he has consumed in his time on earth. He also overlooked both Gago (real madrid) and Lucho Gonzalez (Marseille) so will field a MF that would make the USA snicker. Public will LOVE Argentina because of all those forwards but only one wiill play with Messi and only one will come off the bench. The rest of this team, except for maybe Samuel, are nothing special and Maradona has made damn sure that none of these guys are used to playing with each other at all. Again, he could have had 3/10 field players (Samuel, Zanetti, Cambiasso) on the field at the same time...3 guys that all start forthe top club in football, yet he prefers to mix and match players and put everything in Messi's hands. If you watched Inter shut down Messi you will see it is more than possible to do, especially in a group with 3 teams that can defend. Maradona has called up over 100 players since taking over and they really had no business making the finals. Their 1-0 win at Uruguay was incredibly lucky and the only reason they are here. That was their lone away win in 8 qualifiers as they failed to score at Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, and Paraguay, drew Peru, and got hammered by Bolivia. They have put together a nice run of friendlies but I hold no stock in friendlies at all. I will actually wach the Canada match tomorrow though it won't tell me anything about what to expect in South Africa. Of course they are massive favorites to win their group but this team, aside from attackers, is very unimpressive. Greece, So Korea, and Nigeria are no world beaters but they are all very good defensive teams that can easily frustrate Argentina. Yes, it is possible that Messi simply dominates the group but he's never shown a penchant for international football and if you shut him down this team won't go far.
group B under 14.5 goals
- I've talked a lot about Argentina who are really the only team in this group with capable scorers so if their games go under this group will see few goals.
Greece are a dominant defensive team. 9 of their last 12 games overall have been played under 3 goals and they haven't allowed more than 2 goals in a game since a friendly in Hungary in 2008 including games against Spain, Italy, Ukraine, Poland, Denmark and Switzerland. They're a team that fully relies on defense to get results so expect their matches to stay at just a goal or two
South Korea of course has to step up in competition here so they are the wild card but they have a great defensive streak going right now, holding Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Latvia, Finland, Senegal and Denmark scoreless just in the past 8 months.
Nigeria also getting many clean sheets recently. During the African Nations Cup they shutout 4 of their last 5 opponents with only Ghana scoring in that time, while they only scored 5 times themselves (3 against horrendous Mozambique). Offensively you have to go all the way back to 2005 to find a game where they scored 3+ goals against a team ranked in the top 100. Recently against other WC teams they defeated Algeria 1-0, lost to Ghana 1-0, beat France 1-0, and beat South Africa 1-0. I'm seeing a pattern
South Africa to qualify and win group
- smallest bet but has to be taken because of history. No host nation has failed to get out of their group...ever! that includes the USA and South Korea who were massive underdogs to advance but home teams somehow end up playing against 10 men or getting a lucky penalty or, in the USA's case, an own goal to win the game. Mexico, France, and Uruguay despite their higher FIFA rankings will NOT be favored over the host nation so you will see probably PK for every South African match. Mexico has massive problems scoring (3-2-0 3/0 in last 5 friendlies), France are an aging club with their own scoring troubles, shutout by every team in WC they have played in past 20 months (Uruguay, Argentina, Nigeria, and Spain). And Uruguay are here based on a 2-1 aggregate win over Costa Rica, who routinely get their asses kicked at the world cup.
- this is a group where every game will be low scoring thus the 12.5 total goals in group and not 14.5-15.5 like every other group. This means that one mistake or one extra motivated player can make the difference and with altitude, temperature, and home crowd advantages in their favor I think South Africa can surprise just not enough to lay more than small bucks on them.
